Erdogan an unreliable partner for Putin

TURKISH President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gained international recognition for his role in the UkraineRussia grain deal.This is a UN-backed agreement that was realised in Istanbul last month after months of effort from the Turkish government and is vital for food security for many Middle Eastern and North African countries.

On the one hand, while he has received praise over this deal, he has also received global condemnation for conducting military operations against Kurdish groups in Syria. Erdogan has established a very “special relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country has faced international isolation since Russian armed forces invaded Ukraine in February.

The Russian president is willing to establish strong business ties with Türkiye, especially in the areas of trade and energy, but Erdogan’s close ties with jihadist groups remain a great security concern for Putin. Consequently, he has still has not given the green light for Erdogan’s Syria operations.

Erdogan and Putin have both been in power for more than two decades. They visit each other frequently and bilateral relations between Türkey and Russia have entered a new phase since the early 2000s, with both leaders establishing a close dialogue.

Türkiye’s trade volume with Russia reached a record high of $34.7 billion in 2021. According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, a total number of 1 972 projects, with a total value of more than $75.7bn, have thus far been realised by Turkish contractors in Russia.

Russian tourists constitute the majority of tourists visiting Türkiye in recent years, as seven million Russians visited in 2019 and about 4.7 million last year in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Despite close business ties, Türkiye and Russia have often found themselves supporting opposing sides in many key conflicts. Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane in the Türkiye-Syria border area in November 2015. Erdogan then apologised to Putin and this seemed to have strengthened relations between the two leaders.

Another shocking incident to occur was when an off-duty Turkish police officer with close ties with Erdogan’s Islamist circle, assassinated the Russian ambassador to Türkiye, Andrei Karlov, in 2016.

Following several meetings in 2017 and 2018, Türkiye and Russia once again entered a new spring in their relationship.Türkiye, Russia and Iran launched the trilateral Astana Process mechanism to resolve the decade-old Syrian problem.

In a deal that angered Nato members, Türkiye ordered Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. Washington has warned its Nato ally Türkiye against purchasing new weapons from Russia.

The Ukraine crisis gave Erdogan the upper hand in the relationship between himself and Putin as the Western world introduced severe economic sanctions on Russia. Türkiye did not join the Western sanctions, instead welcoming Russian oligarchs, investors and Russian citizens to settle in Türkiye since the Ukraine War.

Türkiye remains an important strategic and economic partner of Russia, but since Türkiye has become the preferred transit route for jihadists heading to the Middle East and Islamic State becoming active in Türkiye since the eruption of the Syrian civil war, Erdogan increasingly looks like an unreliable partner for Putin.